by Adam Manning
I’ve long been an admirer
of Dr O’Neill’s classic on space colonization, The High Frontier. As a result I was excited to order a copy of
a lesser known book of his entitled 2081 which, as the name suggests, is
a description of a possible future set in that year. Written in 1981, it’s interesting to note not only the future
world he describes but also, given that we are now over thirty years on from
his start date, to reflect on the changes since it was written and how his
future projection fares as a consequence.
The first part of the book
contains an overview of prior futurist writing including the works of H.G.
Wells and Jules Verne so as to consider how accurate previous predictions have
turned out. These inform Dr O’Neill’s
futurism as he takes note of the way previous writers were successful or not in
projecting what might happen.
We are then launched into a
wide ranging exploration of the world of 2081.
In The High Frontier at various points Dr O’Neill adds colour to
his writing by using the figure of a couple of new immigrants to the space
colony to help flesh out his description.
He uses this technique to an even greater degree in what is a vivid
account of life towards the end of the twenty-first century.
Surprisingly not much space
is spent on describing the space colonies for which Dr O’Neill is often
remembered now. The narrative concerns a visitor from a space colony travelling
to Earth. Dr O’Neill focuses mostly on practical matters, such as detailing how the
various transport systems function.
Sub-orbital travel to quickly move around the surface of Earth is
common. The people in the pleasant,
domed American settlement the visitor initially spends a lot of time in generally
use self-driving cars to get around town.
One of the most striking
concepts of the future from our time involves that of the Singularity, that is
a rate of technological change so accelerated that it is impossible for us to
really understand what might be on the other side. Computer technology has undoubtedly permeated industrial society
by even 2013 let alone 2081 to a much greater degree than even Dr O’Neill seems
to have predicted. He briefly sketches
the use of laptop computers in 2081 and digital cameras able to store a whole
one hundred photos. Yet not even he
could grasp how ubiquitous and constantly engaged computer technology and
specifically the internet would become over the next thirty years, to say
nothing of the seventy years beyond that.
I wondered whilst reading
this book whether we had in a practical sense gone through a technological
singularity already over the last thirty or forty years. Whilst not perhaps
the total break with our current world set out by transhumanists, there can be
no doubt that the current power of computers was not fully envisaged at the
time 2081 was written.
In Dr O’Neill’s 2081, only
an educated elite seem to need or be able to work. Much of the population that
is unable to acquire the advanced technological skills needed to work cannot be
employed and instead seem content to live in the background on public
benefits. Fortunately for the purposes
of his narrative, the space colony’s visitor to Earth spends time with a
successful middle class family and enjoys their high standard of living. Only shopping as a cultural delight, the
bulk of their consumables are purchased via online commerce.
The one very futuristic
element in the North American setting is that old science fiction stand by, the
humanoid robot. He is a butler, kitchen
maid and all round helper with a face that reminds the visitor of a panda.
Dr O’Neill doesn’t seem
concerned with the politics, philosophy or religious beliefs of the people of
Earth in 2081 and his primary mission is to describe the technology they use to
lead their comfortable lives. The space
colonies provide much of Earth’s huge energy needs. Yet the expansion of
humanity into space has seemingly not worked any major changes into the outlook
or beliefs of Earth’s inhabitants – they simply lead easier and more enjoyable
lives.
One of the chief concerns
we have when we think of the future is global warming. In 1981 this was already
considered a problem and we might be generous to Dr O’Neill and consider that
given the knowledge at that time, he is remarkably astute to mention it as much
as he does. Fortunately one of the
themes of technological changes to 2081 is ensuring it is more benign to the
environment. The environment, Dr O’Neill notes, is going to be a major movement
and locus of change in the future. Let us hope he is right.
After a cross country
holiday, our visitor to Earth then goes on a world tour. Great Britain and
Europe more broadly fare well in the world of 2081 although the Soviet Union is
still limping on, albeit with much of its communism muted by de facto
capitalism. Africa fares worst in his
future. Whilst Dr O’Neill decides that
all out World War 3, a possibility to be sure, doesn’t actually happen by 2081
the international scene is still acutely dangerous. In passing, we are told
that some African capital cities have been destroyed through the use of
strategic nuclear weapons by terrorists.
Alarmingly, the narrator only narrowly misses being destroyed in a
nuclear bazooka attack on an airport terminal in Africa that kills 4,000. Dr O’Neill’s concern is that nuclear
terrorism may come to be a catastrophic danger.
He travels through Asia and
spends time in Japan, the most advanced technological nation in the world where
the humanoid robots so precious in America are a common place. For all their advanced society and enormous
wealth, the Japanese are desperately paranoid about the risk of nuclear
terrorism.
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